2020 has been difficult for retail. That is likely the understatement of this very strange year. So what about the all-important Holiday shopping season which is upon us? What will it look like with COVID and everything else characteristic of this year?
“In a year when retailers have been trying to serve their customers, keep employees safe…in the middle of a pandemic, it’s hard to see what’s on the immediate horizon, especially with consumer spending habits,” according to a recent post on retaildive.com. “We might want to predict right now. The only thing we can guarantee is that we would be wrong,” says Howard Meitiner, managing director at Carl Marks Advisors and former president and CEO of Sephora USA. “If sales are flat overall, that would be success.”
Forecasting how consumers will act is doubly difficult this year, not just due to the pandemic, but also a contentious election and the prospect of a new U.S. presidential administration, including new policies affecting everything from international trade to taxes to renewed lockdowns.
“Lower projected holiday growth this season is not surprising given the state of the economy,” says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, quoted in a risnews.com article. “E-commerce is likely to be a big winner because consumers have shown a clear movement towards buying online rather than at brick and mortar stores.”
This year, 97 percent of customers polled plan to do some of their shopping online (source). Independent stores are increasingly turning to Facebook marketplace and other outlets, in addition to having their own ecommerce websites, although competing with the big online retailers is a challenge.
How your Holiday shopping season looks will be determined somewhat by where your store is, with different states/provinces and localities having widely differing rules in place concerning lockdowns, social distancing, masks, etc.
